The Yankees are projected to have a pretty good shot at World Series number 28.
With the announcement of the season, projection systems have begun to update their look at the league. Taking into account the schedule and injuries since February, updated their ZiPS projection system Wednesday. It gives the Yankees the second best chance of winning the World Series, while the Mets are expected to just miss out on the playoffs.
For the Bronx Bombers, there’s no surprise there. The team was one of the favorites heading into the year when Spring Training originally got underway in February. In an odd turn of events, the time off may have helped the Yankees more than hurt them, allowing some of the players who suffered injuries in spring to fully recover. ZiPS projects the Yanks to finish with a 37-23 record with a 46.5% probability of winning the AL East and a 8.8% probability of a World Series win.
For the Mets, the system sees them as closer to a .500 team with a projected record of 31-29. That is good enough for third in the NL East in the projections, but just a 32.7% probability of the playoffs. The loss of Noah Syndergaard for the year due to Tommy John surgery doesn’t help. Their chance of winning the World Series is pegged at 2.7%. To quote “Dumb and Dumber,” ‘so you’re saying there’s a chance?’
Based on comparing the projections from February to now, the Mets had the fifth biggest drop in playoff chances, dropping by 16.7%. That said, the Yankees had the largest dropoff, going from 93.7% in the preseason to 66.5% now (-31.2% drop). That drop comes from both the unpredictability of a short season and also starter Luis Severino undergoing Tommy John surgery.
There is still plenty that can change between now and Opening Day on July 23 or 24 so those projections may look different in just a few short weeks.